TGW PODCAST — TELEPROMPTER SCRIPT THE AI DIP GOT BOUGHT — recorded Mon Jun 29, 2026 Educational only — not financial advice. Verify any number before you say it. ═══════════════════════════════════ HOW TO RUN THIS (read once, then delete this block before recording) - This is a RAIL, not a read. Glance, don't recite. - "IN QUOTES" = say roughly verbatim (hook, stats, CTA, disclaimer). - • bullets = your beats. Riff in your own words. Hit them, move on. - Riverside teleprompter: font BIG, scroll MANUAL (or slow), mirror on. - One block ≈ one segment ≈ one screen. The ▶ LAND IT line is your cue to move on. - [→ D] = optional hand-off to D Waugh. Ignore if solo. ═══════════════════════════════════ ─────────────────────────────────── COLD OPEN 0:00 NORTH STAR: open the loop, don't answer it yet. ─────────────────────────────────── SAY (roughly): "Last week everyone said the AI trade was breaking. Today the Nasdaq jumped 2% and the Dow hit a record." THEN, quick: • So which is it — bubble, or buy? • Today we settle it with the actual numbers. TEASE THE 4 BEATS: • The round-trip • Is the spending showing up in earnings? • What today's bounce really means • What to watch this week ▶ LAND IT → "Let's get into it." ─────────────────────────────────── SEGMENT 1 · THE ROUND-TRIP 0:45 NORTH STAR: same names, opposite week = sentiment, not fundamentals. 🖥 SCREEN-SHARE: round-trip card. ─────────────────────────────────── BEATS (riff): • Last week — they DUMPED the Mag 7. • Today — they bought the dip right back. • Alphabet led, and it JOINED the Dow today. NUMBERS (say exact): "Nasdaq — down 2.2% Thursday, up 2.07% today, twenty-five eight-twenty." "Dow closed at a record fifty-two thousand." "S&P up 1.18%." ✏️ ON SCREEN: circle −2.2% → +2.07% ▶ LAND IT → "Same companies. Opposite week. That's sentiment moving — not the business." [→ D for the 'why does that happen'] ─────────────────────────────────── SEGMENT 2 · IS THE SPENDING IN THE EARNINGS? 3:30 NORTH STAR: yes — in revenue now, profit holding, but cash is the cost. 🖥 SCREEN-SHARE: scroll to the "earnings deep-dive" charts. *** This is the meat of the episode. Slow down here. *** ─────────────────────────────────── FRAME THE BET (say exact): "They're spending about seven hundred twenty-five BILLION on AI this year — up seventy-seven percent from last year." THE ONE IDEA (teach it — your words): • Capex is CASH today, EARNINGS tomorrow. • The cash leaves now. • The cost hits profit slowly — depreciation, ~5-6 yrs. • So we look in 3 places, in order ↓ CHART 1 — REVENUE (the payoff lands first): • It's showing up, and it's SPEEDING UP. say: "Azure up 40. Google Cloud up 63. AWS up 28 — fastest in 15 quarters. Nvidia data center up 92." • Point: demand is real, they can't build fast enough. CHART 2 — MARGINS (is it in profit?): • Profits still GREW ~30% at all four. • Margins holding — even rising. • Catch: depreciation hasn't fully hit yet. Watch this. CHART 3 — FREE CASH FLOW (the squeeze): • THIS is the honest one. say: "Microsoft's free cash flow — down 22%. Alphabet — cut roughly in half. Amazon — down 95%." • Earnings look great while CASH gets drained. That's capex. CHART 4 — NVIDIA (the other side): • Their spending IS Nvidia's revenue. say: "Data center up 92, margins around 75%." • Caveat: it's a little circular — same names buying each other. ▶ LAND IT → "So is it working? Yes — in revenue and profit, RIGHT NOW. The bill shows up in cash flow. And the real test — does the revenue cover the depreciation — that's twelve to eighteen months away." ─────────────────────────────────── SEGMENT 3 · TWO THINGS THAT HELPED TODAY 8:00 NORTH STAR: structural + policy tailwinds, kept factual. ─────────────────────────────────── BEATS (riff): • Alphabet JOINED the Dow today — and led it. → a nod to how heavy Big Tech now sits in the market. • Fed independence: Supreme Court, 5 to 4, kept Fed governor Lisa Cook in her seat. → lifted an overhang on rate-policy credibility. • Keep this FACTUAL — not political. CONNECT (your words): • Remember the "AI is dot-com 2.0" take? • Today's bounce is the counter-argument. ▶ LAND IT → "Real, profitable companies. The debate is the timeline — not whether they're real." ─────────────────────────────────── SEGMENT 4 · WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU + THE WEEK 9:30 NORTH STAR: down 2 / up 2 is why timing loses. 🖥 SCREEN-SHARE: jobs dashboard (scenarios card). ─────────────────────────────────── BEATS (riff): • A week like this is exactly why timing fails. • Control what you can: a plan, DCA, a basket you get. THE WEEK AHEAD (say the date exact): "June jobs report — Thursday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Markets are CLOSED Friday for the 4th." • Strong jobs → Fed stays tight. • Weak jobs → cut talk comes back. ▶ LAND IT → "One print. Then a long weekend." ─────────────────────────────────── OUTRO 12:30 ─────────────────────────────────── 3 TAKEAWAYS (your words): • It's a re-rating, not a broken model. • Watch free cash flow, not the daily candle. • Ownership beats reacting. THE BRIDGE (say it): "Fix your credit, get approved for funding, open a brokerage, then put that capital to work." CTA (say exact): "Comment AI and I'll send you the Mag-7 capex tracker. Full breakdown's on the channel." TEASE: • Thursday — the jobs reaction. • Sunday — 'Dip or Top?', reading the chart. DISCLAIMER (say once): "Everything here is educational — not financial advice." ═══════════════════════════════════ NUMBERS CHEAT-STRIP (keep visible / verify live before record) Nasdaq −2.2% (Jun 24) → +2.07% / 25,820 · Dow 52,183 record · S&P +1.18% / 7,440 Capex: ~$725B 2026 guidance (was ~$410B 2025, +77%) Revenue: Azure +40 · GoogleCloud +63 · AWS +28 · Meta ads +33 · Nvidia DC +92 FCF: MSFT −22% · Alphabet $10.1B (was $19.0B) · Amazon TTM −95% Jobs: Thu Jul 2, 8:30am ET · prior +172K / 4.3% / +3.4% · mkt closed Fri Jul 3 ═══════════════════════════════════