The Jobs Verdict — August Employment Situation

Fri Sep 4, 8:30am ET · BLS · the last big input before the Sep 15–16 FOMC
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Aug payrolls (print)
____K
Consensus ~+90K (Capital Economics). Trigger: ±40K miss.
Unemployment rate
__._%
July: 4.1% — but it fell on people leaving the labor force.
Revisions (Jul / Jun)
___ / ___
First drafts get rewritten — June ended at just +20K.
Known: July print
−23K
The shock this report answers. Consensus had been +83K.
Known: hike odds going in
56–59%
CME FedWatch after Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (Aug 28).
Odds by 10am
__%
The coin flip: settled, or still in the air?
Sources: BLS Employment Situation (Sep 4) · CME FedWatch · Newsquawk calendar (verified Aug 30). Educational content only — not financial advice.