The Jobs Shock — −23,000 jobs · a record-high market

JULY 2026 EMPLOYMENT SITUATION · RELEASED FRI AUG 7, 8:30AM ET · BLS + CNBC + CME FEDWATCH · VERIFIED AUG 10, 2026

July payrolls

−23,000

Consensus was +83,000 — a 106K miss. Government −53K; retail, leisure & hospitality soft.

Unemployment (U-3)

4.1%

FELL — but largely because people stopped looking. Fewer counted ≠ more employed.

Avg hourly earnings

+3.2%

Year over year — the lowest since May 2021. The raise number behind this week's flagship.

S&P 500 · same week

7,757.64

Record close — best week since April. Bad news repriced the cost of money.

The bridge: yields — how bad news bought record highs

10-year Treasury

4.639%

Fell >3bp on the print. The 10-yr is the price of long-term money — mortgages track it.

2-year Treasury

4.193%

Fell >5bp — lowest since Jul 17. The 2-yr is the Fed-expectations line — savings/CD rates track it. 2s10s spread ≈ 45bp.

September hike odds

~44%

Tumbled after the miss (CME FedWatch). July FOMC held 3.50–3.75% with 3 dissents FOR a hike — one report flipped the narrative. No FOMC until Sep 15–16.

Who actually cut — July payroll change by sector

Government

−53,000

Retail / leisure

soft

Healthcare

+ (slower than usual)

Wage growth nearly flat on the month; the 12-month pace slipped to 3.2% — pair with CPI 3.5% for the real-raise math (see real-raise-dashboard.html).

Sources: BLS Employment Situation (Jul 2026, rel. Aug 7) · CNBC Aug 7 (yields, FedWatch odds) · Capital Street FX weekly (S&P record 7,757.64) · Freddie Mac PMMS Aug 6 (6.69%, printed pre-shock). Educational content only — not financial advice.