The hike path — what Jul 29 does to your numbers

FOMC MEETS JUL 28–29, 2026 · FUNDS RATE 3.50–3.75% · HELD 4 STRAIGHT MEETINGS SINCE DEC 2025

ThinkinGenWealth · Screen-share

Odds · HOLD at 3.50–3.75%

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was ~70–78% pre-CPI (Jul 12 read)

Odds · HIKE +25bp

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was ~22–30% pre-CPI — a live possibility, not a lock

Odds · CUT

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was <1% — cuts are off the table while core sits at ~2.9%

The pass-through — one 25bp hike, your bills worked math · verified Jul 12

Where it lands	Before	After +25bp	The cost
$400K 30-yr mortgage @6.50%*	$2,528/mo	$2,594/mo	+$66/mo · +$23,803 / 30yr
$5,000 card balance @ ~21% APR	$87.50/mo interest	$88.54/mo	the 21% is the real story
HELOCs / variable-rate loans	reprice within 1–2 statements		prime moves same week

*Illustrative rate — mortgage quotes price off EXPECTATIONS, which is why the odds strip above moves your quote before the Fed ever votes. Card APRs float on prime (Fed + ~3pp + margin) — pass-through is fast and automatic.

How we got here the hold streak

Dec 2025Funds rate set at 3.50–3.75% — the last move

Jan–Apr 2026Hold · hold — inflation re-accelerating under tariff + energy pressure

May 2026Headline CPI hits 4.2% y/y — "hike" enters the conversation

Jun 17Warsh's first meeting as Chair — hold #4; no dot plot, no forward guidance

Jul 14–15This week: June CPI 8:30am Tue + Warsh's first Humphrey-Hawkins (House Tue / Senate Wed, 10am)

Jul 28–29The decision. A +25bp move would be the first hike since 2023

What we'd actually watch Warsh for testimony tells · not predictions

If he says…	It signals…	Your move (education, not advice)
"Restoring 2% without delay"-type language	hike door open	know your APRs now; variable debt is the exposed flank
"Inflation risks have eased" (his Sintra line)	patient hold	nothing changes — the match → high-APR → automate order stands
Anything about energy "transitory" vs core	watch core, same as us	read the core line Tuesday, not the headline