⚠ FILL LIVE: the boxes below stay BLANK until the minutes drop at 2:00pm ET. Fill them from the actual document, then re-verify every figure before recording. Nothing on this page is a prediction.
The setup — what we already know
June decision
PAUSE
Warsh's first meeting as chair (Jun 17)
Dot median (others)
3.8%
Warsh didn't submit a dot
Forward guidance
REMOVED
"not well suited" — Warsh
Inflation vs 2% goal
5+ yrs over
"a burden for the American people"
Fill at 2pm — the live read
From the minutes (quote it, don't paraphrase)
Overall tone
On a future hike
On cuts
On energy-driven inflation
The line to quote
Market reaction (3pm check)
The context the minutes land in
Signal
Latest
June payrolls
+57K vs ~110K expected
Unemployment
4.2% (participation fell to 61.5%)
Apr + May revisions
−74K combined
Jobless claims (Jul 2)
215K — still low
Chips last week
SMH −4.5% (2nd day) · Micron −13% day
Dow last close
52,900 record
The tension to explain: jobs data says "cut," 5 years of above-target inflation says "don't you dare." The minutes show which way the room actually leans — that's why Wednesday matters more than usual: with forecasts and guidance gone, minutes are the only tell left.
What it means for the audience (the 3 wallet links)