TGW · Fed Week Dashboard · Jul 27

⚠ Gold dashed boxes are FILL-LIVE — type the real numbers after Wed 2pm (FOMC) and Thu 8:30am (PCE/GDP) releases. Educational content only — not financial advice.

Fed funds target (going in)

3.50–3.75%

Held since June. No dot plot at this meeting — the signal is the statement + Warsh's presser.

Decision Wed Jul 29, 2pm ET

Core PCE (Fed's gauge) — May

3.4%

Highest since Oct 2023 · target is 2.0% · headline PCE 4.1%. June prints Thu 8:30am.

Core PCE, June (Thu)

The gap the Fed stares at

Core PCE 3.4% vs target 2.0%

3.4% — where prices are running

2.0% — where they're supposed to be. Real fed funds ≈ +0.2% — barely restrictive.

Market odds going in

~80% hold

CME-implied. A hike would be the first since 2023 — and the surprise scenario that moves everything on this page.

One Warsh line (presser)

AAA national average gas

$4.09

Jul 23 · +15¢ in one week · first $4+ average since 2022. Refresh Sunday AM.

Brent crude, 2 weeks

$77 → $97

+26% since Jul 10 — drone/missile attacks around the Strait of Hormuz (~1/5 of world oil transits it).

The pipeline lag

Crude → wholesale → your corner station takes 2–4 weeks. Prices rocket up, feather down. EIA's Q3 outlook: ~$3.80/gal average IF the strait quiets.

2-car household math

Line	Number
Jump, 3 weeks	$3.79 → $4.09 (+30¢)
~100 gal/month	+$30 /month
Over a year	+$360
Per 15-gal fill-up	+$4.50

Last week's setup

Alphabet + Tesla fell on their reports (Tesla's worst intraday in a year) · Nasdaq: first back-to-back weekly loss since March · the question: does the AI capex ever pay back?

Wed Jul 29 after close

MSFT · META

MSFT verdict

META verdict

Thu Jul 30 after close

AAPL · AMZN

AAPL verdict

AMZN verdict

SPY — the two lines (Fri Jul 24)

Line	Level	Read
Close	738.93
50-day avg	≈745	0.8% below
200-day avg	≈698.5	5.8% above
50 vs 200 gap	+46 pts	no death cross

Pullback reading, not collapse reading. Recompute Sunday.

Borrowing (the expensive side)

Item	Now
Avg card APR (Fed G.19, assessed interest)	≈22.15%
$5,000 balance, minimums only	19.2 yrs · $8,159 interest
Same card, fixed $250/mo	2.2 yrs · $1,298
You keep	$6,861

Saving / investing (the fair side)

Item	Now
HYSAs still paying	~4%
$30/mo (the pump money) @7%, 30y	$36,599
Long-term trend (SPY vs 200-day)	intact

The through-line answer

Cheaper or more expensive in 2027? (fill after Wed/Thu)

Pre-recording read: more expensive for borrowers, flat-to-better for savers — unless Warsh surprised.

The funding ladder (say it in full)

Fix the credit → get approved for funding → open the brokerage → put capital to work.
The Fed sets the weather. Your credit score decides your house.

TGW · Fed Week — Cheaper Or More Expensive In 2027?