Fed-Eve — Decision Wed Jul 29 · 2pm ET

TGW Screen-Share · Seg 3 · verified Jul 19 — FILL odds Sunday AM
Funds rate today
3.50–3.75%
Held 5 straight meetings since Dec 2025
⚠ FILL: FedWatch odds Sun AM
Hold ___% · Hike ___%
Post-CPI: hike collapsed ~40%→~15%, crept back 30s% as oil passed $80
Cuts in 2026
~0
~76% odds of ZERO cuts all year — "waiting for cheap money" isn't a plan

The tug-of-war the committee walks into

Pulling toward HOLDPulling toward HIKE
June CPI −0.4% m/m — biggest monthly drop since 2020Iran ceasefire collapsed Jul 8 → US strikes → WTI ~$82
Headline 3.5% y/y (from 4.2%) · core 2.6%, flat m/mOil feeds the NEXT print — June's relief was cheap-oil June
Chip bear market = tightening did some workCore still 0.6pt above the 2% target

The pass-through — what 25bp does to YOU (✏️ draw here)

Your lineTodayAfter one 25bp hike
$400K 30-yr mortgage$2,528.27/mo @6.50%$2,594.39/mo @6.75% → +$66/mo · +$23,803 over the loan
$5K card @ ~21% avg APR$87.50/mo pure interest alreadyAPR floats up automatically within 1–2 statements
HYSA / T-bills~4%Savers get the only raise

Next week's map — say it on air

When (ET)WhatWhy it matters
Tue–Wed Jul 28–29FOMC meeting · decision Wed 2pm + presserFirst LIVE hike question since 2023 — we react same-day
Fri Jul 31 · 8:30amJune PCE — the Fed's preferred gaugeConfirms or breaks the CPI story two days after the vote
Sources: federalreserve.gov · BLS (CPI, Jul 14) · CME FedWatch · Polymarket · CNBC/Bloomberg (Jul 13–18). Mortgage/card math computed & verified this run. Educational content only — not financial advice.