Sept 16 hike odds (CME FedWatch)
35% → 59%
Before the keynote vs Friday afternoon. Kalshi 48% · Polymarket 2026-hike as high as 69%. The first genuine coin-flip FOMC of the cycle.
Warsh, verbatim: economy at "full employment" · inflation trends "concerning" · financial conditions "not restrictive" · and he named PCE as the gauge he acts on. (federalreserve.gov, Aug 28)
What a 25bp hike does vs what your tier does — $350K, 30-yr
| Scenario | Rate | Payment/mo | Gap |
|---|
| Today (PMMS Aug 27) | 6.66% | $2,249.19 | — |
| After one hike | 6.91% | $2,307.44 | +$58.25/mo |
| 620-tier, same house | 8.16% | $2,607.32 | +$358.13/mo |
The tier is worth 6× the hike. Computed this run — payments verified in bash. July PCE (his named gauge): 3.7% headline / 3.3% core.