How it happened — the timeline (✏️ circle the peak → the −20% line)
Mar → Jun 22The melt-up: SOX +105% on AI accelerator + memory demand. Staircase of green candles, small wicks — calm, one-way buying.
Jun 22Record close. The top, in hindsight.
Early JulThe candles get tall: bigger bodies, longer wicks — disagreement arriving after the double.
Fri Jul 17Two triggers, one day: Moonshot AI releases Kimi K3 — free, open-source, claiming near-parity with top US models — and the AI-capex ROI question ("when does the profit land?") goes mainstream. SOX closes 20.2% below the record. Netflix −10% on a hair-miss the same morning.
Both of these are true — the perspective slide
$10,000 in Mar→ $20,500 at the peak → $16,359 now. A crash from June. Still +63.6% from March.
Why it lands on YOUR statement
~1/3Roughly a third of every S&P 500 index dollar rides on tech — you're in this trade by default.
$8,000$10K after −20%. Sell there and you need +25% to get even — ~5.7 years parked in 4% cash.
+25%More shares per $100 bought 20% down — automatic investing gets better in red weeks.